Kenya exports to Uganda, Tanzania plunge to multi-year lows as NTBs bite

SATURDAY April, 25, 2026

By Adam Ihucha

The Tranquillity News Corespondent, Kenya

Kenya’s exports to its key regional partners—Uganda and Tanzania—have dropped sharply, hitting multi-year lows in February, thanks to protectionist measures.

Fresh data showing a sharp drop in exports to Kampala and Dodoma underscores how non-tariff barriers—not tariffs themselves—are emerging as the most stubborn constraint on regional commerce, despite repeated political pledges to dismantle them.

Official data shows exports to Tanzania dropped to $20 million— the lowest level since May 2021, when shipments stood at roughly $18.5 million.

Exports to Uganda declined to $51 million, marking the weakest performance since August 2022, when trade was disrupted by Kenya’s general elections.

The downturn comes at a delicate moment, just weeks after leaders of the East African Community (EAC) renewed commitments to eliminate all remaining non-tariff barriers (NTBs) by June 30, 2026.

The numbers, however, tell a different story.

Barriers without tariffs

On paper, the EAC customs union guarantees duty-free movement of goods across member states.

In practice, trade is increasingly shaped by regulatory friction—licensing hurdles, quality inspections, administrative delays, and ad hoc levies that raise the cost of doing business.

Tanzania has been at the centre of several recent disputes.

In March 2025, it imposed new levies on Kenyan goods including eggs, dairy, meat, and confectionery products.

While not formal tariffs, the charges had a similar effect: Pricing Kenyan exporters out of the market and triggering retaliatory tensions.

Earlier episodes reinforce the pattern.

Tanzania’s temporary halt on tea import permits in early 2024, and Kenya’s brief imposition of a 2 per cent levy on cereals and legumes from Tanzania in August the same year, highlight a cycle of tit-for-tat measures that undermine the spirit of regional integration.

Uganda presents a different but equally disruptive dynamic.

Traders report frequent delays and occasional blockades at border crossings, often linked to regulatory disputes or retaliatory enforcement actions.

These interruptions introduce uncertainty into supply chains, discouraging exporters who rely on predictable logistics.

Structural pressures build

Beyond policy friction, Kenya’s exporters are also losing ground due to deeper structural shifts in the region.

Uganda and Tanzania have accelerated import substitution strategies, investing in domestic manufacturing capacity to reduce reliance on Kenyan goods.

Industries once dominated by Kenyan exports—cement, processed foods, and basic manufactured products—are increasingly being supplied locally.

This transition is particularly visible in sectors such as cement and petroleum products in Uganda, and consumer goods and light manufacturing in Tanzania.

The region is talking integration faster than it is building the systems to sustain it,” participant in a meeting of a coalition of civil society groups, business leaders, and regional institutions held at the East African Community headquarters recently.

Kenyan exports of soap, pharmaceuticals, and steel products are facing stiffer competition from domestic producers who benefit from lower input costs and, in some cases, implicit state support.

At the same time, Kenyan manufacturers are grappling with higher production costs and currency pressures, eroding their price competitiveness.

Even where demand remains strong, Kenyan goods are no longer the default choice.

Integration at risk

The decline in exports raises broader questions about the effectiveness of the EAC integration agenda.

The Customs Union, in force since 2005, was designed to create a seamless regional market.

But the persistence—and in some cases proliferation—of NTBs suggests that enforcement remains weak.

Deadlines to eliminate barriers have been set before, often with limited follow-through.

The latest June 2026 target now faces a credibility test as trade data moves in the opposite direction.

For Kenya, the stakes are high. Uganda and Tanzania remain among its largest export markets within the bloc.

Continued erosion of market share not only affects export earnings but also threatens the viability of industries built around regional demand.

Outlook

Unless EAC member states move beyond commitments and implement binding, enforceable mechanisms to eliminate NTBs, the region risks fragmenting into semi-protected national markets.

For Kenyan exporters, the message is already clear: The challenge is no longer tariffs at the border, but everything else that happens before and after goods get there.

In the shadow of the EAC headquarters in Arusha, a coalition of civil society groups, business leaders and regional institutions has delivered a pointed message to the bloc’s incoming leadership: East Africa’s integration agenda risks stalling unless long-standing commitments are translated into measurable action.

That warning was formalised in a joint communiqué issued at the close of a two-day regional dialogue held at Mount Meru Hotel.

Convened under the theme From Summit Directives to Action, the meeting brought together a wide range of stakeholders at a moment of transition within the EAC Secretariat, marking the departure of Secretary General Veronica Mueni Nduva and the arrival of her successor, Stephen Patrick Mbundi.

At the heart of the communiqué is a concern over persistent delays in implementing directives issued by the EAC Heads of State Summit.

Projects initially slated for completion in 2024 have, in several cases, been pushed to 2031 — a shift stakeholders say risks eroding both public trust and institutional credibility.

Participants argued that these delays reflect deeper structural challenges.

As the bloc expands its membership, legal and institutional frameworks have not kept pace, resulting in uneven compliance with treaty obligations among partner states and straining the coherence of the integration process.

Compounding these concerns is the continued prevalence of non-tariff barriers, particularly unharmonised transit licensing systems that disrupt the flow of goods across borders.

Stakeholders noted that such inefficiencies disproportionately affect transporters and small-scale traders — the very groups meant to benefit from the regional integration.

“The region is talking integration faster than it is building the systems to sustain it,” one participant observed privately, capturing a sentiment that resonated throughout the deliberationsΩ